About this episode
Paul Burgess presents updates to his Burgess Oceanic Solar CO2 index, claiming it precisely matches satellite temperatures from 1982–2025 without changing its fixed formula, including UAH v6.1 and final 2024–2025 data despite a record-low PDO. He says the index is not a forecasting model and implies ECS is 1°C, with ~25% warming from CO2 and ~22–23% from human CO2 after outgassing. A second paper argues oceans drive low-cloud changes (1–3 year lag), with ~2% cloud decline explaining warming, challenging IPCC positive feedbacks. He previews an extension back to 1900 with ~0.96 correlation using a UHI adjustment (Connolly 2021) and invites critique by email.00:00 Paul Burgess Returns: Introducing the Oceanic Solar CO? Index Update00:24 How the Index Matches Satellite Temps (and Why That’s Unusual)01:02 No Curve-Fitting: Validation, Critiques, and Why It’s Public02:19 Completing 2024–2025 + Switching UAH v6.0 to v6.103:42 Index vs Model: Fixed Formula, Inputs, and What It Can (and Can’t) Forecast05:01 CO? Contribution & ECS = 1°C: What the Index Implies07:01 Paper #1 Results: Record-Low PDO Stress Test and Fit Metrics11:43 From Statistics to Physics: Paper #2 on Oceans, Clouds, and Sunlight13:03 Clouds as Earth’s Thermostat: The ~2% Low-Cloud Change Claim15:58 Cloud Layers & Evidence: Low Clouds Drive the Signal17:58 IPCC Feedback Story Explained (and Critiqued)21:31 Chicken-and-Egg Problem: Ocean–Cloud Coupling and the 1–3 Year Lag22:00 Paper #3 Teaser: Testing Water Vapor, Albedo, and Cloud Feedbacks27:21 Key Takeaways: Albedo/Ice Changes Follow Warming + Better Cloud Observations28:19 Cloud Cover vs. Shortwave Radiation: What the Satellite Data Shows28:59 Takeaway #3: Low Clouds as an Ocean-Driven “Sunshade” (Not a Warming Amplifier)29:37 Four Key Lessons: Ocean Leads Clouds, and the Radiative Effect Matches30:57 Implications for Climate Sensitivity: Why Models May Overstate CO? Feedbacks32:07 How to Critique the Framework: Falsification Tests and Evidence Chain34:57 Extending the BOI Back to 1900: Data Limits, UHI Adjustments, and Out-of-Sample Logic36:12 Sneak Peek Results: BOI 1900–2025 and the 0.96 Correlation Claim40:23 Q&A: How the BOI Coefficients Were Built (Covariance Fitting, Weights, Inputs)43:51 Testing and Next Steps: Volcano Signals, Ocean Mechanisms, and Future Projections47:02 Forecast vs. IPCC + Wrap-Up: Cooling Possibility, Politics, and Contact InfoEmail: svsuliere@gmail.comExplaining Every Temperature Change from 1983 to 2025 - My Most Important Work Ever: https://substack.com/home/post/p-182701114Linking Ocean Heat, Low Clouds, and Sunlight In Burgess Oceanic index:
