About this episode
Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners and author of The Boock Report, sees "bells ringing" on the AI tech trade with Oracle, CoreWeave, and Nvidia showing tiredness, and warns the question is whether the baton can be passed to other sectors without the market falling apart. His three favorite groups for 2026 are energy (where $60 oil is "one of the cheapest assets in the world" and he sees $70+ minimum), agriculture (fertilizer stocks like Mosaic and Nutrient), and beaten-down consumer staples offering "bond-like dividend yields with equity-like upside." On Venezuela, he disagrees with the oil-for-midterms thesis - it's really about stiff-arming China, Russia, and Iran, and won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years anyway. He's been trimming silver after its vertical move toward $100 but still likes gold driven by central bank buying and dollar diversification. His biggest concern: if we lose the AI trade, its dominance is so large it could take everything down with it.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Substack/The Boock Report: https://boockreport.com/Twitter/X: https://x.com/pboockvarTimestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Peter Boockvar01:18 2025 retro: World markets did really well, fire lit under international markets03:15 Bells ringing on AI tech trade - Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia tiredness05:45 China competition in AI - models more applicable, monetizing faster06:30 Bifurcated economy: Manufacturing recession, lower-middle income spending weak07:45 Data center build out - question of when not if it slows08:30 Delta earnings: Premium cabin strong, main cabin no growth09:15 Europe bifurcated too: Germany/France struggling, Spain/Greece doing well11:36 Three favorite groups for 2026: Energy, ag, consumer staples12:15 Energy: Bearish sentiment extreme, contrarian setup, CFTC net longs at 15-year lows13:30 Venezuela: 5-10 years before notable production increase14:15 OPEC production lagging quotas - most running at full capacity15:00 US shale production slowing, rolling over even in Permian15:45 Peak oil demand pushed out - hybrids winning, EV demand delayed16:30 Ag: Fertilizer stocks - Mosaic, Nutrient - down and out value plays17:15 Consumer staples destroyed over 12 months - deep value now17:52 Names: Kimberly Clark, Nestle, Pepsi, ConAgra, Coke, Reynolds18:24 Oil at $60 is one of the cheapest assets in the world - sees $70 minimum19:15 Energy holdings: Exxon, BP, Shell, Canadian Natural Resources, Oxy, Noble, EQT23:44 Venezuela won't impact oil supply for 5-10 years - focused on near-term
