About this episode
Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:
