About this episode
Edward Dowd, Founding Partner of Phinance Technologies, a global macro alternative investment firm, and author of "Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Deaths in 2021 & 2022,” joins Julia La Roche on episode 304. Ed Dowd argues we're already in a technical recession, with the stock market bubble driven by just seven stocks masking underlying economic weakness as housing rolls over, layoffs accelerate at Amazon and UPS, and credit markets tighten. He warns that insider selling is at unprecedented levels as institutions distribute to retail investors in classic "FOMO" behavior, while the equal-weighted S&P has gone nowhere since January. Dowd criticizes the Trump administration for gaslighting Americans about the economy instead of communicating the Biden hangover from illegal immigration and deficit spending, explains China is exporting deflation due to their real estate crisis and 20 years of excess housing inventory, and predicts a deflation scare with oil plummeting to $30 before the Fed intervenes with massive QE. He recommends raising cash and moving into treasuries like Warren Buffett, expects the dollar to rip as liquidity dries up globally, sees gold hitting $10,000 by 2030 as central banks accumulate it, and warns Bitcoin will go much lower as it's underperforming treasuries—an early warning indicator of the risk-off environment ahead.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaThis episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: PhinanceTechnologies: https://phinancetechnologies.com/ US Economy Outlook 2025: https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm?Twitter/X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardTimestamps: 0:00 - Introduction and welcome1:09 - Macro view5:00 - Credit markets tightening, distribution phase of stock market, Trump administration gaslighting about economy7:00 - China at a crossroads: real estate crisis going acute7:55 - China exporting deflation, depreciating the yuan9:00 - Tariffs are deflationary10:00 - Risk-off environment is coming11:00 - Dollar outlook 12:40 - Risk off environment: flight to safety into treasuries14:20 - Three Hindenburg omens: market breadth disaster15:00 - Gold discussion: long-term bullish, going to $10,000 by 203017:00 - AI bubble: momentum and adm
