About this episode
It’s that time of year again.What’s going to happen? What does the future hold?We all want to know. Knowing what’s going to happen makes you feel better.NostreDominic is here to tell you.Here are 19 predictions for 20261. Gold Breaks $5,000Gold doesn’t quite have the year it had in 2025, but it has a good year nonetheless and rises above $5,000/ozOn which note: Charlie Morris’s monthly gold report, Atlas Pulse is, in my view, the best gold newsletter out there. Get your copy here. No pay nada.2. S&P 500 FrustrationThe S&P500 will spend much of 2026 in a frustrating range trade with a couple of nasty pullbacks. We see an interim peak in April-May, followed by a weak summer, but a strong final quarter means we end the year with a 10-15% gain.The problem of disproportionately few stocks (41 is it?) being responsible for most of the gains remains.3. Inflation Finds New FormsInflation doesn’t die, it mutates. Headline inflation looks reasonably controlled (by recent standards), enabling leaders to declare that it is controlled or some other BS. Despite this “victory”, inflation finds other ways to rob you.4. Bitcoin Hits $150,000Bitcoin has a good year. With escalating geo-political conflict, as well as capital controls and tax grabs, more and more people wake up to the value of permissionless, apolitical currency. Falling trust in fiat - never mind government institutions - becomes more culturally entrenched. Bitcoin goes to $150,000.5. Starmer Survives (Just)Prime Minister Keir Starmer manages another year. His position gets even more precarious after a bad showing in the May local elections, but it is still only 2026 and the next General Election is not till 2029. Too early to oust him just yet.6. Government Spending: The Unstoppable ForceGovernment spending keeps on increasing. Even if they wanted to, they just can’t stop it. Western Europe continues, therefore, its great march on the road to serfdom7. But No Sovereign Debt CrisisDespite the mathematics verging on the impossible, government debt continues to outpace GDP (it has grown at three times the pace this century) but the inevitable sovereign debt crisis that is coming to the UK, Western Europe and perhaps even the US, is somehow averted.By saying it won’t happen, it will happen. I know it.8. British Stocks Shine Despite Economic StagnationBritain’s economy continues to stagnate, but British stocks do well. Rather like Japan circa 2015, the valuations are so cheap that mergers and acquisitions are inevitable. Foreign money takes advantage.9. Oil RecoversOil, currently lagging metals, begins to turn around. Brent crude stays above $55 and flirt
