About this episode
FRANCE 24's François Picard welcomes Jon Marks, author, political scientist and chairman/founder of Cross-border Information. Having followed energy markets for decades, Marks warns that we are in uncharted waters: the current crisis bears little resemblance to any previous shock. Analysts instinctively look for historical parallels – the oil shocks of the 1970s, the tanker wars of the 1980s, or the market turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Yet the current situation combines elements of all three while remaining fundamentally distinct. This is unprecedented. At the heart of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically sensitive maritime corridor that has rarely faced disruption on this scale. Meanwhile, the geopolitical context of global energy markets has shifted dramatically. The oil market is no longer solely Western-focused; it is increasingly shaped by Asian demand, meaning countries such as China, India, South Korea and Japan may feel the most immediate economic impact. Amid global instability, Russia stands to gain, both politically and economically. Europe faces rising fuel costs and a renewed debate over energy dependency, particularly the shift from Russian pipeline gas to greater reliance on liquefied natural gas imports from the United States. At the same time, Gulf states must reassess their strategic relationship with Washington, after a military escalation produced consequences that few anticipated.
