About this episode
In this Rock Stock Recap, we (Howard, Matt and Rodney) break down POSCO's joint venture with Mineral Resources at Wodgina and Mt Marion, and what that valuation is telling us about where lithium equities may be mispriced.
Chapters
(00:00) Intro
(02:59) POSCO-Mineral Resources JV
(05:46) POSCO's Conversion & Upstream Strategy
(07:44) POSCO's Global Lithium Buying Spree
(09:49) ESS Outlook & Benchmark Debate
(12:04) Solar Growth & Lithium Demand
(14:00) ESS to the rESScue - New Lithium Forecast
(17:39) Midstream Funding, Policy & Project Cancellations
(20:13) Batteries, National Security & the AI Race
(24:26) Lithium Price Rally & Seasonality
(27:27) China Costs, Lepidolite & Raw Material Tightness
(31:12) Brines, DLE Progress & AME as Bellwether
(34:02) Rare Earths & Critical Minerals Opportunities
(35:22) London 121 Conference & Meetings
(36:27) Critical Minerals Supercycle & Wrap-Up
(38:04) Surge Battery Metals
(38:16) Hiring Cassidy & Associates
(39:07) Meetings in Washington
(40:09) Funding Discussions
(40:53) U.S. Critical Minerals Deficit
(41:37) China Trade Concerns
(42:18) Loan Programs Office Insights & Permitting
(45:00) Australia Partnership & JV Update
(46:08) Expanding Critical Minerals List
(47:12) Battery Policy Priorities
(48:26) Greg's Background
(49:13) Lithium Market Sentiment
(50:08) Closing Remarks
We walk through:
- Why POSCO is paying a substantial premium to current market valuations for upstream lithium assets
- How this deal fits into POSCO's broader hydroxide, cathode and ex-China conversion strategy
- What it could imply for hard-rock vs brine valuations and for names like Lithium Argentina, NOA and other brine developers
From there, we revisit our recent conversations with Iola Hughes (Benchmark) and Jigar Shah, and debate energy storage system (ESS) demand versus consensus. We compare installations vs shipments, discuss inventory build-up, and why we remain structurally bullish on battery energy storage alongside EVs.
We also cover:
- The latest "ESS to the rESScue" style forecasts and what higher ESS numbers could mean for lithium balances in 2025-2027
- U.S. policy shifts: DOE loan cancellations, the midstream funding gap, and how batteries are increasingly being framed as a national security and AI/datacenter issue
- Recent lithium price action, Chinese raw material tightness, CATL's supply situation and what we're seeing in the cost curve
- DLE progress at key South American brine projects and why some assets are emerging as bellwethers for the technology
- How producers and select developers (including Q2 Metals and other critical minerals names) are trading against this backdrop
We also flag our upcoming participation at the 121 mining conference in London, where we'll be meeting a range of lith
