About this episode
Time for the annual predictions episode! Bryan and Adam were joined by frequent future-ologists Simon Willison, Steve Klabnik, and Ian Grunert to review past predictions and peer into the future. If any of these predictions come to fruition, it's going to be an interest 1, 3, or 6 years!In addition to Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal, speakers included Simon Willison, Steve Klabnik, and Ian Grunert.Previously on Oxide and Friends:OxF s04e02 – Open Source LLMs with Simon WillisonOxF s02e23 – Predictions 2022OxF s03e20 – Predictions 2023!OxF s04e01 – Predictions 2024!OxF s05e01 – Predictions 2025Predictions during the show:Adam1 year: AI companies go on an acquisition binge (especially for anything that smells like data)3 year: Crisis of AI slop open source (both projects and contributions)6 year: Jensen hands over the reins at Nvidia6 year: Tesla is out of the consumer car business6 year: With the iPhone market shrinking, Apple has several new attempts at the next potential flagship productBryan1 year: "Vibe coding" is out of the lexicon -- or used strictly pejoratively it becomes a named condition (for which Adam -- in an act of nomenclature genius rivaling The Leventhal Conundrum -- suggested "Deep Blue")1 year: A frontier model company has a prominent whitepaper making the case that AI will lead to broad-based prosperity rather than job loss1 year: Harvey.ai becomes the pets.com of the AI boom -- and a harbinger of the coming bust (which becomes known as a Correction-like euphemism)1 year: A prominent S1 has revalations of economic behavior that has an effect beyond the company's IPO3 year: Frontier models treat AGI as "already done" -- and ASI as a non-goal3 year: Custom-written software thrives in lieu of SaaS6 year: DSM adds LLMs as a substance that can induce psychosis6 year: $NVDA not beyond its November 2025 peakSimon1 year: The AI for programming holdouts are going to have a nasty shock1 year: We're going to solve sandboxing1 year: Our own challenger disa
