About this episode
Middle East escalation. Oil surging. Inflation fears reigniting. And mortgage rates are jumping.Today we break down:• Why conflict involving Iran is sending oil prices higher • How rising oil feeds directly into inflation expectations • Why the bond market is selling off instead of rallying • What this means for the 10-Year Treasury • And how all of it impacts YOUR mortgage rateNormally, geopolitical conflict pushes investors into bonds — which lowers mortgage rates.That’s not happening.Instead, the market is pricing in higher inflation risk, fewer Fed cuts, and longer-lasting rate pressure.If oil stays elevated, inflation could reaccelerate. If inflation reaccelerates, mortgage rates don’t fall.We’ll walk through exactly what needs to happen next for rates to stabilize — or drop.Transparent. Data-driven. No hype.🔔 Start Here
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Every day, we pull real pricing from 30+ lenders and show you exactly what you qualify for — plus lock vs. float guidance tied to:• CPI • Jobs reports • MBS pricing • 10-Year Treasury movementsNo guessing. No hype. Just data.📲 Follow The Rate UpdateYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRateUpdatewithDanFrio Instagram: https://instagram.com/therateupdate TikTok: https://tiktok.com/@therateupdate Facebook: https://facebook.com/therateupdate LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danfrio⏱️ CHAPTERS00:00 Middle East Escalation & Market Shock 00:45 Why Oil Is Spiking Right Now 01:50 How Oil Impacts Inflation 03:00 Producer Inflation (PPI) Surprise 04:05 Why Bonds Are Selling Off 05:15 10-Year Treasury Breakdown 06:20 Why Mortgage Rates Are Rising 07:30 Inflation vs Recession — What the Market Is Pricing 08:45 What Needs to Happen for Rates to Fall 09:35 Lock