About this episode
https://join.robinhood.com/jacke30• Regime markers:• Sub-14 and falling: risk-on, CPI likely cool/inline.• 16–18: chop; headline-sensitive.• Term structure: Backwardation (near-dated VIX futures > far-dated) after CPI is a red flag for near-term drawdowns.• CDX/IG spreads:• Tightening after bank earnings: Confirms credit stability. Widening >5–10 bps on hot CPI or weak guidance is risk-off confirmation aligning with equity drawdown.Rates and factor impacts• Treasury yields:• 2-year vs. 10-year:\text{Slope} = y_{10} - y_{2}• A bear-steepener (10-year rising faster) on hot CPI pressures growth; a bull-steepener after cool CPI often rotates into cyclicals and financials.• High-beta vs. low-vol:• Post-earnings rotation measured via ratio charts (e.g., SPHB/SPLV). A sustained breakout signals risk-on confirmation; breakdown aligns with defensive bid.Volume and market profile• CPI session volume:• VWAP anchoring:• Anchor year-to-date VWAP to CPI day; acceptance above = bullish context, rejection below = bearish.Event schedule and likely market impactScenario ladders and mechanical triggersScenario A: CPI cools or inline• Expectation: Front-end yields dip; VIX slides; breadth improves; banks steady.• Triggers:• SPX closes above 50-DMA on >1.2× volume with RSI >55.• NDX breadth >50% above 50-DMA within two sessions.• VIX term structure in contango and spot 20; defensives bid; banks mixed if NIM helps but credit jitters rise.• Triggers:• SPX rejects 200-DMA and RSI slips 22 and put/call ratio exceeds 1.0.Scenario C: Earnings beat but cautious guidance• Expectation: Initial rally fades; leadership narrows.• Triggers:• Gap-and-crap patterns in mega caps; failure to hold opening gap by close.• Breadth stalls
