About this episode
Episode overviewIn this special episode, hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia welcome Nathan William Thooft, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets and Equities at Manulife Investments. Nate shares his global perspective on markets, asset allocation, and the evolving investment landscape, with insights tailored for Canadian investors.---Key topics & insights1. U.S. economic outlook: resilience amid uncertainty· No imminent recession expected—Nate explains that while recent U.S. labor market data has softened, it’s not likely a signal for an imminent recession. The U.S. economy’s balance between manufacturing and services helps offset sector-specific weaknesses.· Policy uncertainty—Earlier legislative and tariff changes have caused “paralysis” in company decision-making, but clarity is expected to improve economic data in coming months.· New paradigm—The severity of future U.S. recessions may be more muted due to the economy’s diversification.2. Inflation & tariffs: what’s really happening?· Tariff impact delayed—Studies show tariffs typically take up to a year to affect inflation. Many imports are exempt, and companies are absorbing costs, leading to lower-than-expected inflationary effects.· Substitution effect—Companies are shifting imports to countries with lower tariffs, further dampening inflation pressures. 3. Regional equity markets: Europe & Asia· Europe’s outperformance—European equities have surprised with strong returns in 2025. Nate attributes this to a sentiment shift away from the U.S. amid geopolitical uncertainty, but sees it as opportunistic rather than a long-term trend.· Active vs. passive management—Active management is especially valuable in regions like Europe and Asia, where opportunities are less covered.· China’s mixed signals—Despite strong equity performance and policy support, China’s fundamentals (consumer spending, industrial production) remain weak. Nate is cautiously optimistic, citing potential in technology and AI, and improving sentiment.4. Asset allocation: equities vs. fixed income· Modest equity overweight—Manulife portfolios remain overweight equities, reflecting solid fundamentals despite stretched valuations.· Fixed income caution—Less conviction in long-duration fixed income due to changing yield curve dynamics and rising term premiums.· Diversification beyond 60/40—Nate advocates for broader diversification, including alternative assets, to manage risk.5. Private Assets & Alternatives· Democratization of privates—The trend toward making private assets (infrastructure, private credit, real estate) accessible to retail investors is accelerating, as seen in recent industry partnerships.· Role in portfolios—Private assets offer diversification and potential downside protection, especially when traditional fixe
