About this episode
The oil market has been rocked by escalating tensions in the Middle East, massive price swings, and a growing debate over whether the world is heading into a full-blown energy shock. In this special two-part episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we bring you perspectives from both sides of the market.First, Josh Young, Portfolio Manager at Bison Investments, breaks down the crisis from the buy side, explaining why he believes the oil market was already tightening long before the latest geopolitical escalation and why the risk of a major supply shock is being underestimated. He walks through what could happen if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist — including his view that if the strait were to remain closed for roughly 60 days, oil prices could surge to new all-time highs. Josh also explains why energy stocks may still have significant upside and how he’s positioning his portfolio to capture asymmetric opportunities in the sector. He also notes that higher global oil prices could be particularly positive for Canadian oil producers, which stand to benefit from stronger crude pricing and increased demand for secure supply outside the Middle East. In Pro Picks, Josh highlights Crescent Energy (CRGY), which he describes as a “Moneyball”-style operator buying and improving undervalued assets; Ensign Energy Services (ESI.TO), an oilfield services company he believes is being overly punished for its Middle East exposure despite strong free cash flow; and Journey Energy (JOY.TO), a small-cap Canadian producer he says still has meaningful upside driven by its Duvernay exposure and potential takeover interest.Then we shift to the sell side with Patrick O’Rourke, Managing Director, Institutional Equity Research at ATB Cormark Capital Markets, who explains how analysts and institutional investors are interpreting the crisis — with a particular focus on what it means for Canadian oil prices and producers. Patrick breaks down why crude volatility has been concentrated at the front end of the curve, why energy equities haven’t fully reacted yet, and how investors are trying to determine whether higher oil prices will last. He also explains how global supply disruptions are tightening Canadian heavy oil differentials, improving realized prices for Canadian crude, and increasing demand for barrels that can reach the Gulf Coast or Asian markets.From geopolitical risk to Canadian energy policy to the stocks investors are watching closely, this episode takes you inside the biggest debate in energy markets right now—whether this is just another oil spike or the beginning of a much larger structural shift.Timestamps00:00 Trailer02:20 Intro 04:40 The buy side view: How we could see $200 oil 07:30 What about demand destruction? 09:40 Shocking for the U.S. President to flat out lie 12:00 Implications for midterm elections 14:00 IEA releasing 400M barrels 16:15 Expectations
