About this episode
This episode of Excess Returns features Bob Elliott discussing the growing fragility in the global economy as an oil shock collides with a shift from an income-driven to a savings-driven system.The conversation explores why markets may be mispricing the economic impact of higher oil prices, how inflation and growth dynamics could unfold, and what this means for investors navigating an increasingly volatile macro environment.Bob also breaks down how to think about global macro investing today, including why traditional portfolios may be poorly positioned for a wider range of outcomes, how macro managers are adapting to shifting conditions, and how AI-driven productivity gains could impact economic growth, labor, and markets.Bob Elliott on Twitterhttps://twitter.com/BobEUnlimitedUnlimited Funds websitehttps://www.unlimitedfunds.comTopics coveredThe shift from an income-driven economy to a savings-driven economy and why it creates fragilityWhy an oil shock acts as both an inflation driver and a tax on real consumer spendingHow higher gas prices mechanically reduce discretionary spending and economic growthWhy markets may be underpricing the economic impact of the current oil shockThe link between oil prices, inflation expectations, and real demand destructionHow global markets respond to shocks through deleveraging and volatility spikesWhy gold and other winning trades can fall during risk-off environmentsThe sequencing of inflation first and growth slowdown later in shock-driven cyclesHow central banks are likely to respond to a stagflationary shockLessons from 2022 and 2008 for understanding today’s macro environmentWhy stocks and bonds may both be mispriced in the current regimeThe difference between consumer surplus and true productivity gains from AIWhy AI-driven job losses and economic growth cannot coexist without major dissavingThe most likely path for AI as a productivity enhancer rather than a job destroyerHow to think about measuring productivity in a technology-driven economyThe role of second- and third-order effects in macro investingHow global macro strategies identify mispricings across asset classesThe concept of using the “wisdom of the crowd” from hedge fund positioningWhy macro strategies can perform in both rising and falling marketsHow macro fits into a portfolio as a diversifier versus long-only assetsWhy the future investment environment may require broader strategy
