About this episode
Subscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on SpotifySubscribe to the Jim Paulsen Show on Apple PodcastsIn this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today’s markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI’s long-term economic impact.Topics covered in this episodeHow geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentimentWhy market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investorsThe relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial marketsWhy Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatilityWhy energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cyclesThe argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economyHow AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demandWhy technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating workThe concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growthPaulsen’s analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growingWhy the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positiveHow the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader marketThe historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity marketsWhy policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocksWhether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recessionWhy policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocksTimestamps0:00 Jim Paulsen on ge
