About this episode
Millions of Canadian mortgages taken out at ultra-low rates between 2020 and 2022 are now coming up for renewal – at much higher rates. That reality has led many to warn about a "mortgage renewal cliff" in 2026. Doug Hoyes is joined by Ron Butler (Butler Mortgage, Angry Mortgage Podcast) to unpack what's behind the renewal headlines, why renewal is a cash-flow test (not a crystal ball) and how homeowners can think clearly about their options as low-rate mortgages reset. A clear look at who may feel pressure at renewal, and how borrowers can think through their options before renewal letters arrive. 00:00 – What the "mortgage renewal cliff" actually means 03:10 – Which mortgages are renewing in 2026 06:00 – Why renewal math is very different from origination 09:30 – How bond yields flow through to mortgage rates 12:30 – Cash flow vs home equity at renewal 16:20 – Who is most at risk — and why 20:10 – House prices, equity, and renewal decisions 23:40 – Why even small delinquency increases matter 26:10 – How borrowers should think about renewal decisions 29:15 – Why renewal is a math test, not a market prediction Butler Mortgage Angry Mortgage Podcast on YouTube Scott Terrio on the Angry Mortgage Podcast Ron Butler live stream on Debt Free in 30 Mortgage Rate Charts Butler Mortgage Rates Butler Mortgage Calculator Toronto Real Estate Price History Subscribe to Debt Free Digest Newsletter – Don't Miss the Chance to WIN a Copy of The Wealthy Barber! Other sources: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/07/staff-analytical-note-2025-21/ https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/01/staff-analytical-note-2025-1/ https://wowa.ca/infographics-finance-realestate-canada/mortgage-renewals-of-major-canadian-lenders
