About this episode
With headlines of an imminent job apocalypse, code red for ChatGPT and recursive self-improvement, at the same time as Anthropic's CEO yesterday saying we know how to scale to AGI, and Gemini 3 DeepThink out today, it is easy to get lost among the narratives and counter-narratives. So here are both, plus the facts behind them, for you to decide.https://epoch.ai/data/data-centersEpoch AI is the sponsor of today’s video, and my views, and those expressed in this video, do not necessarily reflect Epoch AI’s views in any way.Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction00:42 - Job Apocalypse?01:45 - Scaling to AGI04:15 - Recursive Self-Improvement Needed, or Not09:57 - OpenAI Code Red vs Gemini 3 DeepThink vs Claude Opus 4.513:27 - DeepSeek Speciale vs Mistral Large v316:45 - Claude Soul Documenthttps://lmcouncil.ai/AI Insiders ($9!): https://www.patreon.com/AIExplainedGuardian Interview: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ng-interactive/2025/dec/02/jared-kaplan-artificial-intelligence-train-itselfMIT Study on Jobs/Tasks: https://iceberg.mit.edu/report.pdfvs https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/26/mit-study-finds-ai-can-already-replace-11point7percent-of-us-workforce.htmlAmodei on Scaling: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FEj7wAjwQIkClaude Soul Document: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vpNG99GhbBoLov9og/claude-4-5-opus-soul-documentCapabilities Original Stance: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safetyIlya Interview: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ilya-sutskever-2Ricursive Intelligence: https://x.com/RicursiveAI/status/1995932204703346946Economist Worker Usage of GenAI: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/11/26/investors-expect-ai-use-to-soar-thats-not-happening#selection-1409.94-1413.42Mistral v3 Large: https://docs.mistral.ai/models/mistral-large-3-25-12Compute Slowdown Paper: https://joel-becker.com/images/publications/forecasting_time_horizon_under_compute_slowdown.pdfhttps://x.com/joel_bkr/status/1993023436541903155METR Chart: https://metr.org/blog/2025-03-19-measuring-ai-ability-to-complete-long-tasks/https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-350-billion-computing-cost-problem?rc=sy0ihqOpenAI Code Red: https://www.anthropic.com/news/core-views-on-ai-safetyRocket Company: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/sam-altman-rocket-elon-musk-spacex-b2878351.htmlDeepSeek Paper: https://arxiv.org/html/2512.02556v1DeepSeek Crowdstrike CCP: https://www.crowdstrike.com/en-us/blog/crowdstrike-researchers-identify-hidden-vulnerabilities-ai-coded-software/https://simple-bench.com/Patreon Post: https://www.patreon.com/c/aiexplained/postsRobot: https://x.com/jloganolson/status/1985850115379351799
